Putintsev L.A. - Methods of Long-term Forecast of the Side Inflow Into the Reservoir of the Boguchanskaya HPP on the Angara River

Written by Erkin Turdibaev

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Angara is the largest inflow of the Yenisei, a unique river of our country. Its main distinctive feature is the natural overregulation of the river drain of Lake Baikal. This circumstance, as well as favorable topographical and ecological conditions, leads to a fact that the cascade of the hydroelectric power station on the Angara is one of the most effective in Russia by technical and economic indicators. The article investigates the factors influencing the drain of high spring water and develops the method of long-term forecast. The Chadobets and the Mura rivers are used as basins-analogs. The Chadobets characterizes the right-bank territory of the Boguchansky reservoir, the Mura its left-bank. These rivers were used for the calculation of a daily lateral inflow of water into the Boguchansky reservoir which is connected with the drain of thawed snow of the rivers-analogs (the coefficient of correlation is 0.891). Therefore, it is necessary to develop a method of spring drain forecast of the rivers for long-term forecast of water inflow into the Boguchansky reservoir. The method of the forecast is based on the infiltration and capacitor model of absorption of water by a reservoir (E.G. Popov, D.A. Burakov). In this model, indirect indicators of water penetration into the soil before the snowmelt are various characteristics of the pre-spring condition of the river basin. Their selection is made in the following ways: 1) on the basis of pair correlation of the drain of thawed snow (Y) with various indicators of pre-spring moistening and frost penetration in the reservoir; 2) by calculation of coefficients of multiple linear correlation of the drain of thawed snow and the factors determining it (water-supplies in the snow cover, rainfall during the snowmelt and various indirect indicators of water penetration into the frozen soil); 3) by optimization of parameters of nonlinear approximation of the water-balance dependence for the forecast of the drain of thawed snow following from the infiltration and capacitor model. The analysis showed that the best characteristics of water penetration into the reservoir are consumption of the water of the rivers-analogs for November and temperature of the soil at a depth of 0.2 m. The optimization parameters of the infiltration-capacitive model give equations for the forecast of the melted water runoff of the rivers-analogues, which is closely associated with the lateral inflow into the reservoir of the Boguchanskaya HPP. The rating scale adopted in hydrological forecasts characterizes the forecast of the lateral inflow into the reservoir of the Boguchanskaya HPP as "good". Download (in Russian) (pdf, 963 kB)  Source: http://cyberleninka.ru/

 

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