At present, the water level in the Northern Aral Sea is 42 m. A series of numerical experiments were made in order to assess potential changes in the sea level. Modeling was made using a water balance model and two climate change scenarios - А2 and В2. The results allowed assessing future changes in the sea level in light of economic activity under the current climatic conditions and with the climate changes. Only during 5 years out of 33 ones the sea level would be above 42 m BS. Climate change would affect significantly sea level fluctuations during dry periods. It is concluded that in order to keep water level in the Northern Aral Sea at the present mark, water resources that would be available for Kazakhstan in the future would be not enough, taking into account current economic activity and prospective climate change.

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