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Ushakov M.V. - A Model of the Winter Runoff Depletion Curves in the Northeast of Russia |
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Written by Erkin Turdibaev
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Tuesday, 05 September 2017 |
The North-East of Russia is the region supplied by water in terms of the average annual runoff; but every winter it turns into the water-stressed region. In order to develop measures to reduce the action of this negative hydroecological factor we are to examine the change patterns of the stream runoff in wintertime. The work objective is to obtain a mathematical model of the run-off depletion curves for the non-frozen rivers of the North-East of Russia in the winter runoff low and to apply it to the prediction of daily water discharge. Based on the analysis of the winter runoff hydrographs of the non-frozen rivers of the North-East of Russia we revealed the differences in the nature of runoff depletion on both sides of the main watershed of the Earth, due to the climatic conditions. The run-off winter depletion curves are well described by an exponential function. The runoff depletion coefficient is associated with a heat runoff of a river, indirectly characterizing the heat and moisture input regime in the water catchment area. For the unexplored rivers we propose a heat and water availability index of a basin, which is a product of the rate of the annual flow layer and the long-time average annual air temperature Centigrade, increased by 20 °C. The resulting mathematical model allows precomputing the daily water discharge in the next six months (mid-October - mid-April) at the operating hydrological stations and at the unexplored rivers. To do this, we need to measure the water discharge in mid-October, or define it according to the rate of discharge of the nearest similar river. The model is verified according to two hydrological stations, which were not used in the development of the calculation model, i.e. on the independent data. The accuracy of the calculation of the long-time average annual winter runoff curves is 11.4...14.7 %, and the runoff curves of the specific years - 3.3...16.7 %.
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