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Home Papers Ushakov M.V.  A Model of the Winter Runoff Depletion Curves in the Northeast of Russia 
Ushakov M.V.  A Model of the Winter Runoff Depletion Curves in the Northeast of Russia 



Written by Erkin Turdibaev

Tuesday, 05 September 2017 
The NorthEast of Russia is the region supplied by water in terms of the average annual runoff; but every winter it turns into the waterstressed region. In order to develop measures to reduce the action of this negative hydroecological factor we are to examine the change patterns of the stream runoff in wintertime. The work objective is to obtain a mathematical model of the runoff depletion curves for the nonfrozen rivers of the NorthEast of Russia in the winter runoff low and to apply it to the prediction of daily water discharge. Based on the analysis of the winter runoff hydrographs of the nonfrozen rivers of the NorthEast of Russia we revealed the differences in the nature of runoff depletion on both sides of the main watershed of the Earth, due to the climatic conditions. The runoff winter depletion curves are well described by an exponential function. The runoff depletion coefficient is associated with a heat runoff of a river, indirectly characterizing the heat and moisture input regime in the water catchment area. For the unexplored rivers we propose a heat and water availability index of a basin, which is a product of the rate of the annual flow layer and the longtime average annual air temperature Centigrade, increased by 20 °C. The resulting mathematical model allows precomputing the daily water discharge in the next six months (midOctober  midApril) at the operating hydrological stations and at the unexplored rivers. To do this, we need to measure the water discharge in midOctober, or define it according to the rate of discharge of the nearest similar river. The model is verified according to two hydrological stations, which were not used in the development of the calculation model, i.e. on the independent data. The accuracy of the calculation of the longtime average annual winter runoff curves is 11.4...14.7 %, and the runoff curves of the specific years  3.3...16.7 %.


